Our Services

Technical R&D Consulting

Members of the Barbara Geldner Project have significant experience performing methods development and research in support of the 2023 and 2029 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan, both pilot and coastwide compound flood risk modeling efforts for the Louisiana Watershed Initiative, and the City of Jacksonville Compound Flooding Analysis. Capabilities include:

• Support in scoping and planning for larger-scale model development efforts, including probabilistic models of flood forcings, hydrodynamic models which map those forcings to outcomes, estimation of likely damages, and evaluation of the impacts of risk mitigation measures in support of resilience planning efforts.
• Development of rigorous probabilistic models of flood forcings, with a greater level of rigor and detail than prevailing methods which simplify the severity of flood events to a single scalar variable.
• Development of rigorous probabilistic models of compound flood forcings, in which two or more drivers (e.g. rainfall, river flow, storm tide) meaningfully contribute to flood risk - an area in which the state of practice is woefully lacking.
• Development support for damage estimation methods with and without mitigation interventions.

Model Validation and Due Diligence

Model validation and due dilligence in flood risk analysis is difficult compared to other fields, because we can't simply gather hundreds more years of data to make sure our assumptions and modeling methods have worked. The best we can do is ensure our assumptions are valid, that any assumptions which might be violated have limited impact, and that our mathematical models provably and objectively map our assumptions and data to our conclusions. Exceptionally few practitioners in the field of flood risk analysis have any formal mathematical training; otherwise, the field wouldn't be silently in crisis. In practice, it's generally nobody's job to ensure mathematical correctness and validity of the statistical models underlying flood risk estimates. We'll go over your model with a fine-toothed comb, verify every step of the mathematics, and check every assumption to ensure that your flood risk data is valid and reliable. We also provide step-by-step guidance on how best to address any issues we come across.

Scientific Advisory

• If you want to develop a rigorous flood risk model for your area and aren't sure where to start, we can help you break down the necessary components, bring you up to speed on the state of the art, scope development of a model with the level of detail that's right for your area, and guide you through the process whether it's us you want on development or another firm.
• If you know your model isn't perfect, but aren't sure which flaws are most urgent to address, we can help diagnose the most critical issues and lay out a method that will give you the greatest gains in performance and reliability with the least financial investment.
• We can help you weigh the strengths and weaknesses of competing models, products, and proposals.
• We offer inservicing to help local experts understand how flood risk models are built from the ground up, with active support and guidance throughout the development process if you want to perform your own modeling internally.

Planning and Policy

Let's say you know your flood risk. Now, what do you do about it? We can help:

• Explore your options for flood risk mitigation invesments.
• Perform cost-benefit analysis.
• Explore impacts holistically, to examine real impacts on community and infrastructure resilience and go beyond simply counting dollars of structural damage.
• Work with internal and/or local stakeholders to tailor analysis to your specific needs.
• Utilize Robust Decision-Making (RDM) and other frameworks for decision-making under uncertainty to derive actionable insight even if the best available model can't account for imporant uncertainties and developing a better model is cost-prohibitive or otherwise intractable.